Powerball vs Mega Millions: Which Has Better Odds?
If you play the lottery, you've probably stared at the counter at your local convenience store and wondered: should I buy a Powerball ticket or a Mega Millions ticket? Both are multi-state games offering life-changing jackpots that regularly cross the billion-dollar mark. Both cost $2 per play. And both sit right next to each other on nearly every lottery terminal in America. But underneath the surface, these two games are structured differently in ways that meaningfully change your odds at each prize tier — and, more importantly, how much you actually take home when you win.
In this breakdown, we'll walk through the full prize structure of each game, compare the two multiplier options, look at historical jackpot data, and end with a practical answer to the question everyone really wants: which one should you play tonight?
Game Format: The Basics
Powerball uses a 5/69 + 1/26 format: you pick five main numbers from 1–69, plus a single Powerball from 1–26. Drawings are held Mondays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays at 10:59 PM ET. Mega Millions uses a 5/70 + 1/25 format: five main numbers from 1–70, plus a single Mega Ball from 1–25. Drawings are held Tuesdays and Fridays at 11:00 PM ET.
On paper, the larger main-number pool in Mega Millions (70 vs 69) pushes its jackpot odds slightly higher, while its smaller bonus-ball pool (25 vs 26) pulls them slightly back. When you do the full combinatorial math, the two numbers almost cancel — but not quite.
Jackpot Odds: Powerball Has a Razor-Thin Edge
The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are 1 in 292,201,338. The odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot are 1 in 302,575,350. On an absolute basis, Powerball is about 3.4% more likely to hit — a real mathematical advantage. In practical terms, the difference is meaningless: you're more likely to be struck by lightning twice in your lifetime than to win either jackpot on a single ticket.
Overall Odds of Winning Any Prize
The overall odds of winning any prize are nearly identical: 1 in 24.87 for Powerball and 1 in 24 for Mega Millions. That means for every 25 tickets you buy, one is statistically a winner — but the vast majority of those wins are the lowest prize tier ($4 for Powerball, $2 for Mega Millions), which barely covers your ticket cost.
Full Prize Tier Comparison
Where the two games really diverge is in the mid-tier prizes. Here's the full side-by-side:
- 5 + bonus: Powerball jackpot (starts $20M) vs Mega Millions jackpot (starts $40M since the April 2025 rule change)
- 5 numbers: $1,000,000 in both games
- 4 + bonus: $50,000 (Powerball) vs $10,000 (Mega Millions)
- 4 numbers: $100 vs $500
- 3 + bonus: $100 vs $200
- 3 numbers: $7 vs $10
- 2 + bonus: $7 vs $10
- 1 + bonus: $4 vs $4
- Bonus only: $4 vs $2
Mega Millions pays noticeably more at several mid-tiers ($500 for four matches versus Powerball's $100, for example), but Powerball wins at the 4+bonus tier with its $50,000 payout. That $50,000 Match 4 + Powerball is one of the best value prize tiers in any U.S. lottery — the odds of hitting it are about 1 in 913,000, compared to 1 in 931,000 for Mega Millions' equivalent $10,000 prize.
Power Play vs Megaplier: The Multiplier Breakdown
For an extra $1 per ticket, both games offer a multiplier. They work differently.
Power Play (Powerball) multiplies non-jackpot prizes by 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x, or 10x. The 10x multiplier is only available when the advertised jackpot is $150 million or less — so in a typical large-jackpot environment, 5x is the cap. The $1 million Match 5 prize is doubled to a flat $2 million with Power Play regardless of the multiplier drawn.
Megaplier (Mega Millions) multiplies non-jackpot prizes by 2x, 3x, 4x, or 5x. The $1 million Match 5 prize can be multiplied all the way up to $5 million — a massive advantage over Powerball's flat $2 million cap.
If your goal is to maximize second-prize upside, Mega Millions with Megaplier is clearly better. If you're playing for the occasional $50,000–$500,000 mid-tier win, Powerball with Power Play gives you a higher base prize to multiply.
Jackpot History: Who Has Grown Bigger?
Since both games adopted their current formats (Powerball in October 2015, Mega Millions in October 2017 and again April 2025), Powerball has produced the two largest U.S. lottery jackpots on record: the $2.04 billion Powerball won in Altadena, California on November 7, 2022, and the $1.765 billion Powerball won in California on October 11, 2023. Mega Millions owns the third spot with its $1.602 billion jackpot from August 2023, won in Neptune, Florida.
Powerball's longer rolls — driven in part by three weekly drawings versus Mega Millions' two — mean it reaches record territory more often. But Mega Millions jackpots also climb fast, and the 2025 rule change (higher starting jackpot, faster roll rate, guaranteed multiplier on every ticket) was specifically designed to push Mega Millions back into record contention.
Expected Value: Neither Is a Good Bet
Both games have a negative expected value on every ticket. After taxes and cash-value discount, the "break-even" jackpot — the point at which a $2 ticket has neutral EV assuming no split — sits north of $1.5 billion for both games, and even then, the probability of a multi-winner split usually erases the edge. Put simply: you are never playing for positive expected value. You are paying for a few days of possibility.
The Verdict: Which Should You Play?
If we had to pick, here's the simple rule we recommend to most players: play the game with the larger current jackpot. Both games' base odds are effectively identical, so the deciding factor is what you'd actually win. If Powerball is at $400M and Mega Millions is at $180M, Powerball is the better ticket that week. If the opposite is true, flip it.
If you're a fan of bigger secondary prizes and are willing to spend the extra $1, Mega Millions with Megaplier has the strongest upside at the $1M tier. If you hunt the $50K Match 4 + Powerball prize, Powerball wins.
Ultimately, both games are designed to be entertainment, not investment vehicles. Set a weekly budget you can lose without blinking, enjoy the daydream, and check your numbers the morning after. Anything more than that, and you've moved from "player" to "problem." If you want to run the numbers yourself, try our Odds Calculator, see real-time data on our Powerball Analysis and Mega Millions Analysis pages, or read our full How to Play Powerball and How to Play Mega Millions guides.